Xeneta, a market analyst, has forecasted a decline in airfreight rates for 2026 due to an anticipated surplus in capacity. This projection was shared at Xeneta’s recent Ocean and Air Freight Summit in Barcelona, where industry experts discussed the expected imbalance between supply and demand in the coming year. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, emphasized that the market dynamics suggest a downward trend in air cargo rates as capacity outpaces demand.
As a response to the projected rate softening, shippers are likely to pivot towards securing longer-term contracts to optimize cost savings. The evolving landscape is expected to prompt a strategic shift in contract structures, as both shippers and forwarders navigate the challenges posed by fluctuating rates and a competitive market environment. Xeneta highlighted the importance of establishing predictability through long-term agreements amidst the market softening.
Amidst these changes, forwarders are anticipated to intensify efforts to expand their market share, aiming to sustain growth in a market characterized by relatively stable cargo volumes. This intensified competition is poised to drive contract rates down further, potentially reshaping commercial relationships within the airfreight industry. The trend towards longer-term contracts has already been observed, with a notable increase in the share of six-month deals timed strategically around peak seasons and annual cycles.
The air cargo sector is witnessing a shift towards index-linked contracts as a means to adapt to changing market conditions. Wenwen Zhang, lead for airfreight development and analyses at Xeneta, identified six key factors influencing air cargo demand in 2025, including supply chain disruptions, trade policies, and manufacturing trends. Zhang raised critical questions about the sustainability of airlines in light of these market dynamics.
The industry is at a crucial juncture where flexibility and data-driven insights are becoming increasingly vital for navigating market uncertainties. Xeneta highlighted the potential for innovative contracting models, akin to those emerging in ocean freight, to enhance stability and trust between airlines and forwarders. These evolving dynamics underscore the need for strategic adaptations and collaborative approaches to sustain growth and competitiveness in the airfreight sector.
As the airfreight industry braces for a period of rate adjustments and heightened competition, stakeholders are urged to embrace innovative solutions and strategic partnerships to navigate the evolving market landscape. The industry’s resilience and adaptability will be key in addressing the challenges and opportunities presented by the anticipated shift in airfreight rates and market dynamics in the upcoming year.
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